Vaping Still Declining, the Non-Existent Gateway, and Other Key Findings from the 2021 MTF Survey

Despite years of claims that vaping acts as a gateway to smoking, new results from the 2021 Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey indicate that not only has interest in vaping waned among youth, but regular combustible cigarette usage is growing even rarer.

In the aftermath of Juul fever, the EVALI scare, Tobacco 21 passage at the federal level, and COVID-19, the MTF survey results actually show significant declines in both teen smoking and vaping.

Specifically, when it comes to 12th grade students:

• 5.4% vaped nicotine daily in 2021. That’s down from 11.6% in 2019.
• Only 4.1% smoked a cigarette in the past 30 days in 2021. That’s down from 19% in 2010, and 31% in 2000.
• Just 2% smoked daily in 2021. This is down from 10% in 2000.

Additionally, as highlighted by Penn State University professor Jonathan Foulds on Twitter, daily smoking is now lower than daily marijuana use among 12th graders.

While some of the 2021 reductions in youth cigarette smoking could be #COVID19 related, it is certainly not just that. Fewer 12th graders smoke cigarettes daily in 2021 (4.1%) than used marijuana daily (5.8%)! https://t.co/FR4RmKbVUL

— Jonathan Foulds PhD (@JonathanFoulds) December 15, 2021

The full results of the 2021 MTF can be found here.